Signs of firm US recovery trigger market gains

LONDON (AP) — Evidence that the U.S. economic recovery is firmly on track drove markets higher on Friday, adding to the cheer from good economic indicators out of Europe.

The world's largest economy added 157,000 jobs in January, in line with market expectations, though hiring over the past two years was revised up. The improvement was not sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate — which is based on surveys of households, not employers — from edging up to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent in December.

But the figure eased concerns that the U.S. economic recovery may have been running out of steam. Official data this week showed the economy contracted on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter for the first time in three years, though mainly due to a one-off fall in defense spending.

Other indicators released Friday proved similarly upbeat — a measure of manufacturing activity in the U.S. rose strongly in January while construction spending grew in December.

In Europe, Germany's DAX rose 0.7 percent to close at 7,833.39 while France's CAC-40 added 1.1 percent to 3,773.53. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.1 percent to 6,347.24.

Wall Street rallied as well, with the Dow rising 1 percent to 13,999.08, trading momentarily above 14,000 for the first time since October 2007. The broader S&P 500 added 1 percent to 1,512.31.

Although the Dow Jones industrial average finished lower on Thursday, the index logged its best January since 1994 by finishing 5.8 percent higher for the month. The Standard & Poor's 500 finished the month 5 percent higher, its best start to the year since 1997.

Earlier, upbeat news in Europe had helped push markets higher. Official figures showed the unemployment rate in the 17-country eurozone was at a lower-than-expected 11.7 percent in December, unchanged from the previous month's rate, which was revised down from 11.8 percent, a record high. Inflation was also steady, suggesting the recession ravaging the currency union is it abating.

"With eurozone economic activity seemingly bottoming out last October and business confidence picking up, the pressure on labor markets has eased," said Howard Archer, chief European economist at HIS Global Insight.

"Nevertheless, business confidence is still relatively low in most countries and eurozone economic activity is unlikely to be strong enough to prevent further rises in unemployment over the coming months."

Earlier in Asia, stocks were mixed after manufacturing data from China fell short of expectations. Industrial production is still growing, but at a slower pace, according to the government-sanctioned China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Its manufacturing index for January fell to 50.4 from 50.6 in December on a 100-point scale in which numbers above 50 indicate expansion.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell marginally to 23,721.84. South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.2 percent to 1,957.79. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.9 percent to 4,921.10. The ASX closed at 4,879 on Thursday, capping its best January since 1995, Lucas said.

Japan's Nikkei 225, meanwhile, was once again energized by the yen's continued descent against the dollar. The index rose 0.5 percent to 11,191.34.

Benchmark oil for March delivery was up 46 cents to $97.95 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 45 cents to close at $97.49 a barrel on the Nymex on Thursday.

In currencies, euro rose to $1.3701 from $1.3574 late Thursday in New York. The dollar rose to 92.51 yen from 91.38 yen.

___

Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.

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Spain's Rajoy denies wrongdoing in kickbacks scandal

MADRID (Reuters) - Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Saturday denied wrongdoing in a growing corruption scandal that threatens his credibility just as he makes headway against economic crisis.

The ruling People's Party (PP) has been buffeted all week by media reports alleging its former treasurers operated a slush fund with donations from construction industry executives that were then doled out to Rajoy and other party leaders.

"I need only two words: it's false," Rajoy said in a televised address after an extraordinary meeting of party leaders to discuss the allegations.

Rajoy, who has had a reputation for being boring but clean, welcomed an investigation into the affair and said he would publish his tax declarations on the internet.

Last week El Pais published extracts from what it said were secret ledgers by PP treasurers over 20 years.

"It is not true that we received cash that we hid from tax officials," Rajoy said. He did not take media questions.

The PP on Saturday also released findings from an internal probe into party accounts back to 1995, concluding payments to members and income from donations were correctly declared and legal. An external investigation would begin in weeks, the report said, and three auditing firms would pitch for the job.

Dozens of police in riot gear guarded PP headquarters in central Madrid on Saturday. A small gathering of demonstrators shouted "resign" outside the building after several hundred people protested there on Thursday and Friday nights.

The scandal has hit Rajoy, 57, just as he had appeared to make some headway in the country's financial crisis. Last year doubts over Spain's solvency forced state borrowing costs dangerously high and Rajoy looked to be on the brink of seeking an international bailout as Greece, Portugal and Ireland have.

But market attacks have abated since the European Central Bank pledged it would back Spain.

Rajoy has asked Spaniards for sacrifices and cut spending. His popularity has sunk during 13 months in office as austerity measures aggravate a deep recession and 26 percent unemployment.

The small United Left party urged him to resign and call early elections over the scandal. But the PP has an absolute parliamentary majority and has shown no sign of any split that might allow opponents to carry a vote of no confidence.

The main opposition Socialists demanded explanations but not his resignation. Polls show they would not win an election now.

CORRUPTION "PERVASIVE"

Bankers called for a rapid response to the scandal. Spain has taken 40 billion euros in European rescue money to clean up its financial sector.

Francisco Gonzalez, chairman of the country's second-biggest lender BBVA, defended Rajoy at a news conference on Friday, saying he knew him well and that he was honest.

"There are clearly many bad practices in many parts of our country and these practices need to be eradicated," he said.

"This is an opportunity for Spain to come out much cleaner."

The anti-corruption prosecutor's office said on Friday it was investigating the alleged payments to PP members. Newspaper El Pais says it has photocopies of ledgers showing annual payments to Rajoy of 25,200 euros ($34,200) over 11 years.

If he reported the income to tax authorities and they appear in public PP accounts, the payments may not be illegal.

If the prosecutor finds evidence of a crime, he will report to the High Court, which will then decide whether it opens a judicial investigation, the first step to any criminal trial.

A judicial probe could take many years to conclude.

In the meantime, Rajoy may struggle to turn around public opinion. A poll before the scandal broke found 96 percent of Spanish adults see corruption as pervasive in politics. Tax evasion and unemployment benefits fraud are rife.

Education and healthcare cuts have soured the public mood. Protesters march in Madrid and other cities almost every day.

Around 10,000 people, many pensioners, protested across Spain on Saturday over how their savings, invested in complex securities, will be wiped out in a bank bailout.

Spain's rescue of its lenders is a common complaint, as the government goes further into debt to help banks that lent recklessly to builders during a property bubble.

A prolonged economic boom, which went into reverse in 2008, was fed by construction. Courts have probed cases of builders accused of paying politicians in exchange for public works contracts or for re-zoning rural land to allow development.

THE BARCENAS PAPERS

Former PP treasurer Luis Barcenas has been under investigation since 2009 for alleged involvement in a kickbacks scheme known as the Gurtel Case. A number of PP mayors and city councilors have had to resign in the Gurtel probe, but the case has bounced from one judge to another and never gone to trial.

The affair returned to the public eye in January when court officials said they had discovered Barcenas had a Swiss bank account that once held as much as 22 million euros.

Barcenas's lawyer said the money came from legitimate businesses and has now been reported to tax authorities.

"The People's Party does not have and never had accounts in a foreign country and has never issued orders to open accounts in a foreign country. We have nothing to do with it," Rajoy said on Saturday.

El Pais said last week it had 20 photocopied pages of Barcenas' secret ledger, allegedly showing almost 20 years of cash donations from executives and a stream of payments. The ledger also allegedly detailed expenses such as suits for Rajoy. Barcenas denied any wrongdoing and called the reports "false".

(Additional reporting by Iciar Reinlein and Rodrigo de Miguel; Writing by Fiona Ortiz; Editing by Andrew Roche and Jason Webb)

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Fed officials see brighter global economic outlook

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two top Federal Reserve officials painted a picture of cautious optimism on Friday for the U.S. economy in 2013, helped by stronger global growth as the central bank aggressively prints money to curb the nation's lofty rate of unemployment.

The Fed this week decided to keep buying bonds at a $85 billion monthly pace, and hold interest rates near zero until the jobless rate falls to 6.5 percent, so long as inflation does not threaten to rise above a threshold of 2.5 percent.

U.S. unemployment edged up 0.1 percentage point to 7.9 percent in January, and the economy shrank slightly in the final quarter of 2012.

But New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley and St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard, who both voted in favor of the U.S. central bank's policy decision this week, saw reasons to be cheerful about the year ahead.

Their remarks are the first public comments by Fed policy-makers since the central bank issued a statement on Wednesday outlining its decision to keep in place an unprecedented level of monetary stimulus, which has tripled its balance sheet to almost $3 trillion since 2008.

"I think a lot of uncertainties that were around this economy in 2012 have come off the table," Bullard told Bloomberg Television in an interview.

"The (U.S.) election has come off. Some of the fiscal risk that was in the U.S. has come off. The European situation has settled down a lot. China looks like it will have a better year. Emerging markets generally...will have a better year," he said.

U.S. lawmakers on Thursday voted to allow the federal government to keep borrowing money until at least May 19, averting a potential collision with the U.S. debt limit that could have caused the nation to default on its debt obligations.

Politicians had already sidestepped potential tax hikes on all Americans at the start of 2013 by agreeing to raise taxes only on families who make more than $450,000 a year.

SLOWING BOND PURCHASES?

Bullard, who is viewed as a centrist on the Fed's 19-member policy committee, said that continued improvements in the labor market during the course of the year would put the Fed "in a position to slow down or stop the purchases."

A closely watched employment report released by the U.S. government earlier on Friday showed that 157,000 new jobs were created in January, while the previous two months' scale of employment creation was also revised higher. U.S. stocks rallied on the news.

"Things aren't perfect. But things are definitely improving, and that will actually be helpful for the U.S. outlook," Dudley told the New York Bankers Association in a speech that was mostly focused on revamping the wholesale funding market.

"If the rest of the world gets healthier, the demand for U.S. goods and services will increase and that will provide support to our own economy," he said.

With the Fed forecasting unemployment to decline only slowly over the next two years, economists do not expect it to begin raising interest rates until 2015 and see bond purchases continuing for the rest of this year and possibly into 2014.

However, minutes of the Fed's December 11-12 meeting, which were released with a three-week lag, showed that several policymakers wanted to slow or halt the buying well before the end of 2013.

Bullard, who had opposed the third round of bond purchases when it was announced in September, said he voted to back its continuation at the most recent meeting because it was a decision to keep policy steady.

"I felt that was probably the right thing to do at this meeting and so I was in agreement with the chairman and the majority in this case," he said.

However, he made clear that the central bank's policy committee continued to wrestle with quantitative easing.

Nor was there any consensus on providing markets with more clues on when the purchases will end, beyond current Fed guidance that it will look for a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook in weighing when to stop.

"I don't think we have any more agreement among members at this point," he said.

Some Fed officials favor adopting numerical economic thresholds to guide expectations of when buying will end. But Fed-watchers doubt the committee will be able to quickly come to a consensus over this matter, and it may prove impossible.

(Reporting By Alister Bull)

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US gains 157K jobs; jobless rate rises to 7.9 pct.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. job market is proving sturdier than expected at a time when the economy is under pressure from Washington gridlock and the threat of government spending cuts.

Employers added 157,000 jobs in January, and hiring was much stronger at the end of last year than the government had previously estimated.

The Labor Department's estimated job gains for the final two months of 2012 — a period when the economy was being threatened by the fiscal cliff — rose from 161,000 to 247,000 for November and from 155,000 to 196,000 for December.

The mostly encouraging jobs report Friday included one negative sign: The unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent in December. The rate is calculated from a survey of households, and more people in that survey said they were unemployed.

The monthly job gains are derived from a separate survey of employers.

The hiring picture over the past two years also looked stronger after the department's annual revisions. The revisions showed that employers added an average of roughly 180,000 jobs a month in 2012 and 2011. That was up from previous estimates of about 150,000.

"The significantly stronger payroll gains tell us the economy has a lot more momentum than what we had thought," Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note.

Stocks surged immediately after trading began at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, an hour after the jobs report was released. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 130 points and briefly touched 14,000 for the first time in more than five years, before falling back.

Other economic news Friday contributed to the stock rally. Manufacturing expanded at a much faster pace in January compared with December, a private survey found. Ford, Chrysler and General Motors all reported double-digit sales gains for January. And construction spending rose in December at a healthy pace.

The employment report revealed a notable shift in the job market: More hiring by construction companies. They added 28,000 jobs in January and nearly 100,000 over the past four months. Those job gains are consistent with a rebound in home construction and a broader recovery in housing.

Retailers added 33,000 positions. Health care gained 23,000 jobs. Manufacturers reported a small increase of 4,000. Restaurants and hotels added 17,000.

The solid hiring in retail, construction, restaurants and hotels suggested that such companies expect consumer spending to hold up in coming months.

"The strong and steady job gains from retail trade and construction look a lot more like a normal economic expansion," said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. "This is a sign that consumer spending is playing a far more important role in this expansion than it has so far."

The job market has remained steady despite pressure on the economy from the rift between President Barack Obama and Republicans over taxes and spending. Across-the-board spending cuts are set to kick in March 1. Financing to run the government will expire by March 27, raising the threat of a government shutdown. And the federal borrowing cap must be raised by May 18 or the government could default on its debt.

Friday's jobs report showed that average hourly wages rose 4 cents to $23.78 and have risen an encouraging 2.1 percent in the past 12 months. That's slightly above the inflation rate, which was 1.7 percent.

Last month's hiring should cushion the impact of the higher Social Security taxes that most consumers are paying this year. And it would help the economy resume growing after it shrank at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the October-December quarter.

Higher Social Security taxes are reducing take-home pay for most Americans. A person earning $50,000 a year will have about $1,000 less to spend in 2013. A household with two high-paid workers will have up to $4,500 less. Taxes rose after a 2 percent cut, in place for two years, expired Jan. 1.

Analysts expect the Social Security tax increase to shave about a half-point off economic growth in 2013, since consumers drive about 70 percent of economic activity.

The hit to consumers is coming at a precarious moment for the economy. It contracted in the fourth quarter for the first time in 3½ years. The decline was driven largely by a steep cut in defense spending and a drop in exports. Analysts generally think those factors will prove temporary and that the economy will resume growing.

Still, the contraction last quarter points to what are likely to be key challenges for the economy this year: the prospect of sharp government spending cuts and uncertainty over whether Congress will agree to raise the federal borrowing cap.

Most analysts predict that the economy will grow again in the January-March quarter, though likely at a lackluster annual rate of around 1 percent. They expect the economy to expand about 2 percent for the full year.

Two key drivers of growth improved last quarter: Consumer spending increased at a faster pace. And businesses invested more in equipment and software.

In addition, homebuilders are stepping up construction to meet rising demand. That could generate even more construction jobs.

And home prices are rising steadily. That tends to make Americans feel wealthier and more likely to spend. Housing could add as much as 1 percentage point to economic growth this year, some economists estimate.

Auto sales reached their highest level in five years in 2012 and are expected to keep growing this year. That's boosting production and hiring at U.S. automakers and their suppliers.

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Energy Secretary Chu is latest Obama Cabinet departure

WASHINGTON/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, the Nobel Prize winner who shepherded an effort to help spur a clean energy U.S. economy, will step down after a tenure rocked by the failures of some costly government investments.

Chu's departure, which was announced Friday and follows similar moves by the Environmental Protection Agency administrator and the interior secretary, will allow President Barack Obama to craft a fresh team to address climate change.

Obama has said responding to the threat of climate change will be a priority during his second term, giving the issue a prominent place in his inaugural address last month.

After legislation setting up a program to cap greenhouse gas emissions failed to get through Congress, the administration pushed ahead with regulating carbon through the EPA. Lawmakers are still divided over climate change and analysts expect Obama will continue to use federal agencies to target emissions.

Chu's successor will likely operate under a much more constrained budget, but could play a key role as the department develops energy efficiency standards, funds research into clean energy innovations and helps oversee the shale oil and gas boom.

Potential contenders for the energy post are said to include Christine Gregoire, former governor of Washington; Bill Ritter, former governor of Colorado; and Dan Reicher, a Stanford professor and former Google climate change executive who worked in the Energy Department during the Clinton administration.

Analysts have said Obama likely will pick a successor with business expertise or political clout to fend off congressional critics of the department's spending on clean energy.

CHALLENGING TENURE

For the last two years, Chu had been at the center of Republican-led probes of his management of the $37 billion his department received for clean energy development from the 2009 economic stimulus.

When Chu took the energy post that year, he was supposed to put a new focus on clean energy. "Drill baby drill" was out, the Toyota Prius - or even better, the Chevy Volt - and solar roof panels were in.

Chu got to play Santa Claus to the clean energy sector with the stimulus funds. But hard times followed when one of the recipients, solar-panel maker Solyndra, filed for bankruptcy in 2011 after receiving a $535 million loan guarantee.

Chu defended his record to the end, fighting off charges that his department doled out funds to political allies.

"We should be judged not by the money we direct to a particular state or district, company, university or national lab, but by the character of our decisions," he said in his resignation letter.

Chu said he may remain in his post past the end of February to help in the transition to his successor.

AWKWARD STYLE

Unlike his predecessors, who included former politicians and businessmen, Chu was a self proclaimed nerd and energy efficiency fanatic who does not own a car, cycles to work and walks many flights of stairs to his office.

Instead of focusing on fossil fuels, Chu made clear his focus was on fuels of the future. In a famous early misstep, Chu even said OPEC was not his domain, then backtracked.

Chu's scientific pedigree was often touted as an asset by the administration. The White House tapped Chu to help figure out how to cap BP's ruptured Macondo well during the 2010 Gulf oil spill, crediting him with helping to devise the ultimate solution for capping the well.

Detractors complained that the bookish physicist's awkward style made it hard for him to push a compelling message promoting renewable or alternative fuels.

Under his watch, big increases in U.S. wind and solar power development were overshadowed by new methods to get at old-fashioned energy sources: crude oil and natural gas.

Kevin Book, managing director at Washington energy research firm ClearView Energy Partners LLC, said the shale natural gas boom in particular upended Chu's agenda.

"Secretary Chu came to Washington to transform America's energy infrastructure and he's going to leave Washington where natural gas has transformed the viability of everything he cared about," said Book.

That oil and gas bonanza has helped to put the country on track to its long-sought after goal of energy self sufficiency, but environmental groups have raised concerns about continued reliance on carbon-releasing fuels.

BAD BET ON SOLYNDRA

The fallout from Solyndra, a "bad bet" that was once a crown jewel of the Obama's renewable energy policy, engulfed Chu in a political firestorm.

Solyndra was supposed to be a success story in the White House's effort to promote green energy and create jobs.

But, after the federal loan aid and visits from President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, Solyndra filed for bankruptcy in September 2011. The Republican-led House of Representatives probe into the government's aid to Solyndra then kicked into high gear.

"The fact that he was not extremely well versed in how to handle folks on Capitol Hill probably created a more adversarial atmosphere than there needed to be," said Salo Zelermyer, an attorney with Washington law firm Bracewell & Giuliani who served as senior counsel at the Energy Department during the Bush Administration.

The department's advanced battery grant program has also experienced some high profile setbacks, with battery maker A123 also filing for bankruptcy.

Despite the negative optics, though, analysts have said it would be unrealistic to expect such a large portfolio of projects to be without failures.

The full impact of the department's efforts is not yet clear, but Chu helped place the nation on a path to compete in the global clean energy market, said Joshua Freed, director of clean energy program at the think-tank Third Way.

"The secretary was brought in because he had an understanding and vision for how to innovate," Freed said. "He actually did that quite well."

Martin Lagod, managing director and co-founder of venture capital firm Firelake Capital Management, said Chu's most important legacy was ARPA-e, the DOE entity that promotes high-impact energy technologies not yet ready for prime-time.

"It is a beautiful program and frankly should be funded bigger and better. ... It's a great catalyst for creative and innovative thinking. A good role for government is to help spur and fund basic research and to me this is a very good example of it in the DOE," said Lagod.

(This story corrects Reicher's title to former Google executive in paragraph six)

(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton and Timothy Gardner; Editing by Ros Krasny and Doina Chiacu)

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S.Africa's rand recovers against dollar, eyes 8.85

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's rand was on track for a second day of gains against the dollar on Friday, eyeing 8.85 as investors that had sold the currency due to a gloomy economic outlook readjust their positions.

Government bonds took their cue from the stronger currency, with the yield on the heavily-traded benchmark 2026 bond shedding 5 basis points to 7.295 percent.

The yield for the short-dated paper due in 2015 was down 3.5 basis points at 5.325 percent.

The rand traded up 0.85 percent at 8.8756 to the dollar by 1552 41 GMT, after ending Thursday's session in New York at 8.9545. This was a 3 percent rise from Monday's four-year low of 9.16.

Friday's gains were the second strongest, after the Polish zloty, recorded against the dollar among 20 emerging market currencies tracked by Reuters.

The rand is however still down more than 5 percent against the dollar since the start of 2013, having taken a pounding in January as labour strikes in the key mining sector took some of the shine out of South Africa's high-yielding assets.

"The potential exists for the correction to extend back towards 8.8500 as offshore (accounts) unwind some long dollar-rand positions and bonds once again," Tradition Analytics said in a market note.

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China services' slow uptick highlights mildness of recovery

BEIJING (Reuters) - Growth in China's increasingly important services sector rose for the fourth straight month in January, though the slim increase added to evidence that the recovery in the world's second-largest economy remains a modest one.

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 56.2 in January from 56.1 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday.

The figure follows the bureau's PMI for the manufacturing sector on Friday, which eased to 50.4 in January, missing market expectations. A reading above 50 indicates growth is accelerating, while one below 50 indicates it is slowing.

"This marginal rise of non-manufacturing PMI again casts doubt on the strength and sustainability of the recovery," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

He noted that new orders declined, pointing to weaker demand, while a rise in input service prices suggested inflationary pressure.

"We believe the government cannot further loosen policies given inflationary pressure, as growth may weaken beyond Q1 as policy easing runs out of steam," Zhang said.

The NBS said in a statement that the retail, air cargo and shipping sectors all reported levels of activity above 60 in January, though the construction sector, one of the big drivers of growth in December, ticked down slightly to 61.6 from 61.9.

The new orders index fell to 53.7 from the previous month's 54.3, showing a slowdown in demand even though the overall figure remained well above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

The intermediate input price index jumped to 58.2 from 53.8 last month, indicating rising costs for enterprises, with a big rise in costs the construction sector.

MODEST RECOVERY

The marginal rise in the services PMI is consistent with the view of many economists that recent data signals a modest recovery for China and that steady policy support may well be needed to keep it on track.

A Reuters poll last month showed that China's economic growth is likely to edge up to 8.1 percent in 2013 from 7.8 percent last year, which had been the economy's slowest growth since 1999.

But the recovery could fizzle in 2014 as a pick-up in inflation forces the central bank to revert to modest policy tightening, the poll found.

The services sector generated 44 percent of China's GDP in 2011, up from 35 percent in 2000, and Beijing has acknowledged that greater consumer activity is needed to reduce the economy's reliance on exports and investment-led growth.

The services industry has so far weathered the global slowdown much better than the factory sector, with the PMI consistently signalling healthy expansion and hitting a 10-month high of 58.0 in March.

That is partly due to a maturing economy as well as a historic shift in the last decade leading a majority of Chinese to live and work in cities rather than the countryside.

The January index of expected activity also fell from December, but remained above 60, indicating that service sector enterprises continued to be optimistic, the bureau said.

(Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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